India's S-400 Deal: Can Pakistan defenses cope with India's S-400 Missile System? | Military Equipment

India's S-400 deal, S-400 Missile System, Pakistan's options against S-400 Missile System, Military Equipment

India-Russia S-400 deal of 5.43 billion USD was signed in 2018 for five S-400 missile systems. The first S-400 system is expected to be delivered to India by the end of 2020. The term of complete implementation of the contract is well known by the year 2023. S-400 is a new generation long-range (surface-air) air-defence missile system. S-400 Missile Defence System is crucial for India as it will fill in critical gaps in robust Multi-Layered Air Defence. Warfare spectrum of 21^st century requires to have GBADWS (Ground Based Air Defence Weapon Systems) that can engage various aerial threats depending on their altitude and nature (Unnithan, 2019).

S-400, anti-missile equipment, is developed as an evolution and up-gradation of S-300MU (SA-10) family. This latest weapon developed by "Almaz Central Design Bureau, is supposed to identify and destroy airborne targets from the distance of over 400 km that is 2.5 times more than the former S-300MU weapon. S-400 is believed to be the most advanced air-defence missile weapon that is capable of detecting even low signature targets using highly accurate radars (FAS, 2020).

S-400 system was first used in Russia in 2007, and was intended to target air threats as well as ground installations. The S-400 mobile multichannel ADMS (Air Defence Missile System) is capable of engaging the current and future air threats faced by India including early-warning and direction aircraft, aircraft jammers, aircraft carrying missiles, reconnaissance aircraft,  tactical ballistic and cruise missiles, and other vehicles used in air attack under heavy ECM environments.

The Triumph S-400 contains 30K6E battle management system, ammunition load constituting 48N6E3 and (or) 48N6E2 missiles (surface-to-air), six 98ZH6E SAM systems, and maintenance facilities like 30Ts6E. The crown jewel of S-400 is its electronically-steered phased array 92N6E radar. This radar is capable of tracking over 300 targets from a distance of 600 km (ROSOBORONEXPORT, 2020).

Each S-400 weapon has four types of missiles based on the range and threat level. The ranges of these missile types are 40 km, 100km, 200km, and 400 km making nearly an impenetrable grid of missiles. S-400 can fire a number of missiles from any of these 4 types (ranges) depending upon the situation. The entire system can be integrated to detect and destroy targets in a matter of a few minutes.

The system can engage 36 targets simultaneously. The range of engagement for a ballistic target is 5 to 60 km, and for the aerodynamic targets is 3 to 250 km. The maximum target speed for the system is 4800 m/s at the altitude of as low as 100 feet to as high as 40,000 feet.  The system can perform in extreme conditions ranging from -50 degree Celsius to +50 degree Celsius.  The mobility of the S-400 system is extremely high. All missiles, launchers, and radars are accurately mounted on 8x8 cross country truck that makes them harder to be detected and destroyed (ROSOBORONEXPORT, 2020).

Options for Pakistan

Nuclear Warheads build-up

The acquisition of S-400 by India may adversely affect the striking capabilities of Pakistani strategic forces. At present, there seems very little possibility that Pakistan would go for acquiring S-400 or any equivalent system in the near future because of the high cost of the system. But, Pakistan is supposed to take a number of measures in order to maintain the balance of power in the South Asian region. One possible option for Pakistan is to enhance the production of nuclear warheads in order to exceed the protection limit of S-400.

MIRV and HGV Technologies

In addition to nuclear warheads build-up, Pakistan also needs to invest in offensive and disruptive technologies like HGV (Hypersonic Glide Vehicle) and MIRV (Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles) rather than investing huge amounts for purchasing Missile Defence system. Pakistan has already tested its MIRV capable Ballistic missile Ababeel in 2017.

MIRV capable missiles like Ababeel can fire a greater number of warheads at multiple ranges. Each MIRV can allow separately targeted warheads to be fired on independent ways once the main propulsion stages of the launch have shut down. The warheads can be fired at different speeds and on various trajectories that may make it challenging for Air defence systems like S-400 to predict the varying ranges and trajectories (Keck, 2018).  

In MIRV-enabled missiles, the main rocket motor is used to push the compartment containing warhead into a suborbital flight path. At the end of the boost phase, the compartment uses an inertial guidance setup to maintain flight accuracy.

Ababeel can carry both the nuclear and conventional warheads up to the range of 2200 km (Missile Threat, 2020). So, as an option, HGV and MIRV technologies in combination with multi-layered DEAD (Destruction of Enemy Air Defences), and improved intelligence-gathering network are capable of ensuring the delivery of Pakistan’s nuclear warheads to the intended targets inside India.

According to experts, S-400 can literally make a “No-Fly-Zone for existing Pakistani fighter jets. However, in the case of Pakistan's MIRV ballistic missiles, S-400 may not be able to eliminate all MIRV warheads. The S-400 kill rate is certainly very high, but, exceptional quality of this system may be overcome by latest MIRV technology that is only held by few nations in the world including USA, Russia, China, Pakistan, and France (The Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, 2020).

Air Defence System LY-80
In addition to the MIRV and HGV, Pakistan can also rely on its already existing Air defence system LY-80. LY-80 is certainly not comparable to S-400. But, it should be kept in mind that Russia developed S-400 keeping in view the technological advancements of the USA. So, S-400 is far better than LY-80. But, interestingly, even if LY-80 is not as advanced as S-400, its capabilities are sufficient to tackle threats posed by moderately advanced Indian Air Force.

At present, Pakistan's threats are mostly India oriented. So, LY-80 does not have to manage the advanced air forces in the world including the US, China, and Russia etc. because of the friendly relations with these nations. So, LY-80 can provide Pakistan with sufficient air defence against the Indian Air force which is not as advanced as US or China, and it may not have modernized weaponry and jets like F-35 for which S-400 was originally designed.

Moving to the details of LY-80 technology, one must know that LY-80 is an air defence system made in China. It is a comprehensive, layered, and integrated system with increased lethality. LY-80 is Low-to-Medium altitude defence system that can hit fighter jets, drones, and cruise missiles. The system can engage six targets simultaneously from the range of 40 km at the altitude between 40,000 and 50,000. The range of the search radar is 150 km. whereas, the range of the guidance radar is over 100 km.

The primary components of LY-80 include command vehicles, firing vehicles, support and electronic vehicle, missile transport vehicle, and power supply vehicle. One LY-80 battery can defend the area of about 8000 sq.km. LY-80 is ready to fire system that can engage the targets in a matter of few minutes (Khattak, 2019).

So, Pakistan can use the combination of the technologies discussed above in order to manage the capabilities of the latest air defence system S-400 to some extent. But, Pakistan will have to further modernize its MIRV and HVG technology in order to challenge or completely counterbalance the new generation air defence systems like S-400 in a better way.

Sources

FAS (2020). S-400 SA-20 Triumf - Russia / Soviet Nuclear Forces. [online] Fas.org. Available at: https://fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/airdef/s-400.htm [Accessed 11 Feb. 2020].

Keck, Z. (2018). Pakistan Has Just Tested the Ultimate Nuclear Missile. [online] The National Interest. Available at: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/pakistan-has-just-tested-the-ultimate-nuclear-missile-24834 [Accessed 13 Feb. 2020].

Khattak, M.U.R. and Kundi, M.A. (2019). Conventional Asymmetries between India and Pakistan: A threat to the Deterrence Stability of South Asia. Journal of Political Studies, 26(1).

Missile Threat. (2020). Ababeel | Missile Threat. [online] Missile Threat. Available at: https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/ababeel/ [Accessed 12 Feb. 2020].

ROSOBORONEXPORT. (2020). Air defence missile system S-400 Triumph | Catalog Rosoboronexport. [online] Roe.ru. Available at: http://roe.ru/eng/catalog/air-defence-systems/air-defense-systems-and-mounts/s-400-triumf/ [Accessed 11 Feb. 2020].

The Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation. (2020). Multiple Independently-targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV). [online] Armscontrolcenter.org. Available at: https://armscontrolcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MIRV-Factsheet.pdf [Accessed 13 Feb. 2020].

Unnithan, S. (2019). Why the IAF wants the S-400 missile. [online] India Today. Available at: https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/why-the-iaf-wants-the-s-400-missile-1569823-2019-07-16 [Accessed 12 Feb. 2020].