Key words: India’s Land Warfare Doctrine 2018, Pakistan's tactical nuclear weapons, MIRV, PAF, War Strategies
India’s Land Warfare Doctrine 2018 is the latest
version of Indian warfare doctrines in the 21st century. Land
warfare doctrine (LWD) is a follow up to the previous JDIAF (Joint Doctrine of the
Indian Armed Forces) that was released in 2017. Indian authorities have
allocated billions of dollars under LWD in order to enhance the capabilities of
armed forces in electronic and network-centric warfare (Hadi, 2019).
The Indian Army is focussed on creating IBGs
(Integrated Battlegroups), expanding its capabilities in cyber warfare,
inducting systems based on artificial intelligence, and introducing
energy-directed weaponry to handle multiple security threats through Land
Warfare Doctrine. LWD considers
multi-front scenario including external collusive threats from China and
Pakistan coupled with hybrid and proxy war.
LWD’s two-front warfare endorses the strategy
of managing the primary front i.e. Pakistan with available options, and
managing the second front i.e. China by maintaining a defensive approach (Pandit, 2018). The concept of managing Pakistan
under LWD meant to somehow punish Pakistan by launching swift operations and
deep strikes to attain spatial objectives. Recent claims of surgical strikes
inside Pakistan in 2019 can possibly be seen as the outcome of LWD. However, analysis
of satellite data by different institutions like European Space Imaging, Australian
Strategic Policy Institute, and Planet Labs Inc. denied the evidence of any
damage to the target or any nearby area (Great Game India, 2019).
LWD further foresees improving the capacity
and capabilities of Indian armed forces to prepare them for cyber, information,
and space warfare. It recommended the adoption of modern technologies like
Quantum computing, nanotechnology, and Artificial Intelligence to augment the armed
services of India. LWD has promoted the idea of equipping the Indian military
with disruptive skills and technologies. These technologies may include Micro
Satellites, Lethal Autonomous Weapons, and Directed Energy Weapons (Bibi, 2019).
Under LWD, India has invested more to gain an
advantageous status in non-contact warfare. Land Warfare Doctrine 2018 is
believed to have all the essential elements required to trigger nuclear
conflict and to further accelerate the arms race. So, it can be said that
Pakistan has been pushed into a scenario where it has to face security
challenges from the neighborhood. As a result, it would compel Pakistani
authorities to utilize the available resources to improve military strength in
terms of a conventional as well as the strategic build-up.
So, the important thing to understand here is
that what options Pakistan can have to counter the consequences of LWD. LWD is
an aggressive doctrine. Pakistan may respond to different elements of this
doctrine differently. Pakistan is already having a professional military that
has proved its worth against India throughout history. But, in order to manage
the threats of possible surgical strikes in the future, Pakistan needs to
further improve the capabilities of Special Response Force. Pakistan should
continuously improve its air power readiness as well.
Pakistan has been working to overcome all the
gaps in deterrence at all strategic levels. It is evident from the previous
standoff between Pakistan and India. PAF’s quick response denied IAF jets to carry
out any sort of damage except dropping their payloads, and forced them out of
Pakistan’s air space. Cyber command is also an important dimension of military
force. Pakistan needs to develop an additional and absolute cyber command for
military involving CERTs (computer emergency response teams). Similarly, for
improving cyber-space capabilities to manage the threats posed by LWD, Pakistan
can cooperate more with China to enhance its capabilities in this sector (Bibi,
2019).
India designed LWD in a way that it can hurt
Pakistan by keeping itself below the nuclear threshold of Pakistan. But,
Pakistan has worked on its tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) in recent years to
deter any aggression of such modern warfare doctrines. TNWs are not as
effective as traditional nuclear weapons in terms of destruction capacity.
Pakistan tends to use these weapons in case its solidarity is challenged by
India. The unique thing about these weapons is that these weapons have a modest
operational value that can avoid large scale destruction as in the case of
traditional nuclear weapons possessed by Pakistan. Moreover, the risk of
deploying these weapons is also considerable that can provide Pakistan with an
option to counter the elements of Indian LWD, if required.
As Pakistan is focussed on utilizing its
conventional weapons as well as low yield and short-range TNWs, it has recently
tested a surface-to-surface nuclear-capable missile Nasr on 24th
January. This missile launch was aimed at delivering a message against the
proactive strategy of offensive Indian military strategies. Pakistan should
also think of investing in space assets including spy satellites in order to
receive real-time information on adversary's deployment pattern, position,
strategic sites, and troops' movement, etc. (Hussain,
2019).
In addition to the above-mentioned tactics
and already existing capabilities of Pakistani armed forces, Pakistan will have
to invest more in anti-weapons, MIRVs, and air defense systems in order to
manage the aerial threats posed by LWD (in form of deep strikes) through UAVs
and various types of cruise or ballistic missiles (Khattak, 2019).
But, in all this scenario, the important
question that has remained unanswered is how a nuclear escalation can be
avoided if aggressive strategies under Indian LWD cross the nuclear threshold
of Pakistan. Both countries have the capability to fight a full-scale nuclear
war and have the capability of the second strike. Thus, the consequences of the
full-scale nuclear war between India and Pakistan can go beyond the imagination
of the two countries.
References
Bibi, G. (2019). Deterrence
Adrift: Dissecting Indian Coercive Military Doctrines 2017- 18. JSSA, 5(1).
Retrieved from https://thesvi.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/JSSA-Vol-5-No.1-Final-31-48.pdf
Great Game India. (2019).
Balakot Airstrike – Forensic Satellite Imagery Analysis. Retrieved 27 February
2020, from https://www.voltairenet.org/article204302.html
Hadi, S. (2019). Electronic
Warfare Capabilities: China, India and Pakistan. Retrieved 27 February 2020,
from https://cscr.pk/explore/themes/defense-security/electronic-warfare-capabilities-china-india-and-pakistan/
Hussain, Y. (2019). India’s
Pakistan-Specific Land Warfare Doctrine: An Overview. Retrieved 28 February
2020, from https://southasianvoices.org/indias-pakistan-specific-land-warfare-doctrine-an-overview/
Khattak, M. U. R. (2019).
Indian Military Modernisation. Strategic Studies, 39(1),
20-40.
Pandit, R. (2018).
Artificial intelligence, robotics part of hi-tech Army warfare strategy | India
News - Times of India. Retrieved 27 February 2020, from https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/artificial-intelligence-robotics-part-of-hi-tech-army-warfare-strategy/articleshow/67153564.cms
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